- How to understand dcf-methode: definition and anwendungsbereich and use it for your capital strategy
- How to understand free cash flow (fcf) definition and calculation and use it for your capital strategy
- How to understand projectionperiode: 5-10 jahre in the tokunft and use it for your capital strategy
- How to understand terminal value: gordon growth vs. exit multiple and use it for your capital strategy
DCF-Methode: Definition and Anwendungsbereich
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-BeValueung is a fandamentale Methode for Business Valuation. Sie basiert on dem Prinzip, thes the Value for a Company gleich dem BarValue all tokünftiger Cash Flows is. The DCF-Methode is besonthes geeignet for Company with Stablen, prognostizierbaren Cash Flows and will be intensiv in investment Banking and Private Equity verwendet.
Free Cash Flow (FCF) Definition and Calculation
The Free Cash Flow is the Moneymenge, The after investmenten dem Company for Verfügung steht:
FCF = EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate) + Abschreibungen - CapitalOutputn - Äntheung des BetriebsCapitals
Alternativ vom Netto-akommen fromgehend:
FCF = Nettogewinn + Abschreibungen - Capex - Δ BetriebsCapital
The FCF is unabhängig of the FinancingsStructure and stellt dar, how viel Value the KernBusiness generiert.
Projectionperiode: 5-10 Jahre in The tokunft
The typische Projectionhorizont liegt at 5-10 Jahren. Thes is a Kompromiss:
- to kurz (<3 Jahre): Ignoriert the langfrisige Potenzial
- to lang (>15 Jahre): Projectionn will be to spekulativ, Mistake verstärken sich
- 5-7 Jahre: Standard for Stable Company
- 8-10 Jahre: for hochgradig Growthsstarke Company
during the Projectionperiode shouldn FCF-Scenarios on realisischen Annahmen based: UmsatzGrowth, EBIT-Margin, Capital intensity and BetriebsCapitalveräntheungen.
Terminal Value: Gordon Growth vs. Exit Multiple
The Terminal Value repräsentiert den Value ab dem letzten Projectionjahr bis in Ewigkeit. Es provides zwei Ansätze:
1. Gordon Growth Method:
TV = FCF(year n) × (1 + g) / (WACC - g)
Here is g The ewige Growthsrate (meis 2–3%, not höher as langfrisiges GDP-Growth).
Example: FCF year 5 = €100 Mio, WACC = 8%, g = 2,5%
TV = 100 × 1,025 / (0,08 - 0,025) = 102,5 / 0,055 = €1.863 Mio
2. Exit Multiple Method:
TV = FCF(year n) × Exit Multiple (e.g. EV/EBITDA)
Example: EBITDA year 5 = €50 Mio, angenommenes Exit-Multiple = 12x
TV = 50 × 12 = €600 Mio
The Gordon-Growth-Methode is theoretisch funTherter; The Exit-Multiple-Methode is praxisorientierter and Considered Marktgegebenheiten.
Discounting: Cash Flows on GegenwartsValue reduzieren
all prognostizierten Cash Flows must with dem WACC as Discount Rate on The Gegenwart Reduces will be:
PV(FCF) = FCF / (1 + WACC)^n
Example for Jahre 1–5 with WACC = 8%:
- year 1: €50 Mio / 1,08^1 = €46,3 Mio
- year 2: €60 Mio / 1,08^2 = €51,4 Mio
- year 3: €70 Mio / 1,08^3 = €55,6 Mio
- year 4: €75 Mio / 1,08^4 = €55,1 Mio
- year 5: €80 Mio / 1,08^5 = €54,4 Mio
Summe PV(FCF) = €262,8 Mio
The Terminal Value will be ebenfalls diskontiert: PV(TV) = TV / (1,08)^5
Enterprise Value bis Equity Value: The Bridge
The Summe the discount them Cash Flows plus diskontierter Terminal Value ergibt den Enterprise Value (EV). Um to Equity Value (Value for Shareholthee) to gelangen:
Equity Value = Enterprise Value - Nettoschulden + sonstige AssetssValuee
Here:
- Nettoschulden = Finanzielle Liabilities - Barwithtel
- Sonstige AssetssValuee = Assoziierte Company, Immobilien außerhalb the Balance Sheet, etc.
Example:
- Enterprise Value (PV aller FCF + TV) = €800 Mio
- Weniger: Nettoschulden = €150 Mio
- Equity Value = €650 Mio
- at 10 Mio Stocks = €65 pro stock
Vollständiges DCF-Calculation Example
Szenario: withtelständisches SoftwareCompany with Stablen Growth
agabegrößen:
- WACC = 9%
- Projectionhorizont = 5 Jahre
- Terminal Value about Gordon Growth with g = 2,5%
Prognostizierte FCF (€ Mio):
| year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| FCF | 30 | 36 | 43 | 50 | 57 |
| Diskontfactor | 0,917 | 0,842 | 0,772 | 0,708 | 0,649 |
| PV(FCF) | 27,5 | 30,3 | 33,2 | 35,4 | 37,0 |
Summe PV(FCF, Jahre 1–5) = €163,4 Mio
Terminal Value: TV = 57 × 1,025 / (0,09 - 0,025) = 58,4 / 0,065 = €898,5 Mio
PV(TV) = 898,5 × 0,649 = €583,3 Mio
Enterprise Value = 163,4 + 583,3 = €746,7 Mio
Annahmen for Bridge:
- Netto-Schulden = €80 Mio
- Equity Value = 746,7 - 80 = €666,7 Mio
- at 12 Mio Stocks = €55,56 pro stock
When you apply this knowledge, you gain a concrete advantage over competitors who enter investor conversations without this foundation. Use the insights from this article as the basis for your next step.
Sensitivity Analysis and Liwithierungen
The DCF-Value is extrem sensitiv gegenabout klan Äntheungen des WACC and the Terminal-Growth-Rate. a 2D-Sensitivitytabelle (WACC vs. g) zeigt typischerweise ±20–30% Schwankungen atm Company Value.
Liwithierungen the DCF:
- Projectionunsicherheit: FCF-Projectionn are spekulativ
- Terminal Value dominiert: 70–80% des Valuees kommt from den letzten Jahren
- WACC-Annahmen: Kla Mistake have großen afluss
- not geeignet: for junge, unrentable or zyklische Company
Daher should The DCF Always through komparative BeValueungen (Multiples how EBITDA Multiple) and Szenarioanalysen ergänzt will be.
