European banking crisis: Why your assets are not safe at your local bank
European banks are not profitable. Your cost-income ratio is 65%. When loans default, things get tight. Learn how to protect your money.
The banking problem in Europe
European banks are not healthy. This is not dramaturgical - it is the mathematical truth that emerges from Huber's data (Figures 21 and 22).
The core problem:
- Negative Margen:The ECB key interest rates are below zero. Banks can't make more money
- Zombie-Kredite:Many companies don't pay their debts, but banks don't write them off
- Restrukturierungsrückstellungen:To a large extent, profits are just provisions for future losses
- Bilanzverlängerung:The ECB ties up balance sheets in bond purchases. Banks have less lending ability
€1,200 billion
Non-performing loans in the EU (2020)
Critical metrics: The cost-income ratio
One key figure shows the problem clearly: the cost-income ratio (CIR). It shows how many cents a bank has to spend to earn one euro.
Cost-income ratio of German banks
Higher = less profitable. Above 60% is critical.
What does that mean?German banks spend 65 cents to earn one euro. This is not sustainable. US banks have a CIR of 42%. This is the Americans' competitive advantage.
How to protect your money
1. Diversification of banks
Not all money is in one bank. Use:
- Mehrere Banken:Deposit insurance works per bank up to €100,000
- Online-Banken:Digital banks don’t have expensive branches and have better margins
- Nicht-Eurozone Banken:Swiss or Scandinavian banks are more stable
2. Alternative form of assets
Banks are not the only form of wealth:
- Gold and silver physical (do not store in the bank)
- Real Estate Ownership
- Shares in international companies
- Cryptocurrencies (as a small position)
3. Structural reallocation
Huber's thesis recommends: Shift 60% of your assets into tangible assets. No more relying on banks.
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Akademische Quelle: Master Thesis
Entwicklung einer optimalen Asset Allocation in Zeiten expansiver Geld- und Fiskalpolitik
Daniel Huber, M.A. — Hochschule Mainz, 2020 | Betreut von Prof. Dr. Arno Peppmeier
13.174 Wörter · 92 Abbildungen · 39 Tabellen · Markowitz-Effizienzlinienanalyse
Vollständige Thesis herunterladen (PDF, 6 MB) →
Daniel Huber, M.A. — Hochschule Mainz, 2020 | Betreut von Prof. Dr. Arno Peppmeier
13.174 Wörter · 92 Abbildungen · 39 Tabellen · Markowitz-Effizienzlinienanalyse